Inflow forecast
model output — not a measurementNOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Sep 9, 3 PM CDT, for the 2 gauged tributary reaches feeding Lake Buchanan. The model routes rainfall that has already fallen plus near-term forecast precipitation.
Gauged inflow now
93
cfs · measured
Peak next 18h
180.8
cfs · ~9 AM CDT · modeled
Projected volume
210
acre-feet over 18h · modeled
If it all reached the lake
+0.01 ft
if it all reached Buchanan · inferred
Projected flow by tributary reach
Dashed = forecast. Values are at the gauges, not at the lake — water takes hours to a couple of days to travel downstream from the gauges to the lake. Flows are projected to rise meaningfully. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.
The “naive lake effect” spreads the projected inflow volume over the lake’s estimated current surface area, ignoring travel time, channel losses, upstream storage decisions, and releases — it is a scale reference, not a prediction of the actual lake level. During floods, watch the live dashboard instead.